Global Report

Activists demonstrate in front of riot police outside the Mane Garrincha National Stadium in Brasilia June 15, 2013. Protests continued in Brasilia over the government's economic policies and the hosting of major sporting events as Brazil's national soccer team prepared to play Japan in the Confederations Cup opening match.     REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino (BRAZIL - Tags: SPORT SOCCER CIVIL UNREST) - RTX10OWU

This report exposes what triggered Brazilian current economic recession, introducing the operation Car Wash and presenting how the impeachment and measures taken by the current president aim to reverse this situation. Interest rate, inflation and many other indexes are exposed to illustrate the whole scenario.

Operation Car Wash

By Matheus Falcão

The operation Car Wash is the largest corruption scandal and money laundering investigation taken place in Brazil. It is estimated that U$9 billion were deviated from Petrobras’ resources, the largest state-owned company in Brazil. Furthermore, many people involved in the scheme were politicians. The first phase of the investigations led in March 2014 by the Federal Court of Curitiba pointed out four criminal organizations led by “doleiros”, operators of the parallel exchange market, who were investigated and prosecuted. Later on has the Federal Prosecutor’s Office collected evidence of an immense corruption scheme involving Petrobras. In the scheme, dating at least ten years, big contractors have organized themselves into cartels, paying bribes to senior state executives and other public officials in exchange for contracts to construction firms at inflated prices. The bribes varied from 1% to 5% of the total amount of the overpriced contracts and then were distributed among financial operators that made illicit transactions between Petrobras and the contractors. Shell companies were used in the laundering of deviated public resources. Among the involved, we can highlight important politicians, such as the former president of the Chamber of Deputies Eduardo Cunha, the former politician José Dirceu, the current president Michel Temer, the former president José Sarney and the former president Lula.

Impeachment

By Matheus Falcão

Among so many outstanding events in 2016, one of the most impacting was the impeachment of the former President Dilma Rousseff. The process was characterized by its controversy and opinion’s divergence between the Parliament and the society. It was led by the former president of the Chamber of Deputies Eduardo Cunha and it started on the 2nd of December 2015, and finished on the 31st August 2016. Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment can be characterized by the moment of economic crisis and low popularity of the president. Dilma, in the beginning, had a vast allied force in the Congress but that was diminishing throughout the trial. On the other hand, she had a strong support from social movements and trade union organizations, which organized demonstrations against the impeachment. The decrees have authorized supplementation of the budget by more than U$30 billion and contributed to the noncompliance of the fiscal goal of 2015. The government knew about the irregularity because it had already requested the target’s revision when the decrees were issued without consulting the Legislative, as it should had been done before the new goal was approved. Jurists have claimed that the former president had committed a crime of fiscal responsibility; the practice is called “pedalada fiscal” and basically means the issue of credit-opening decrees without the authorization of the Congress. According to the lawyers, the accumulation of debts served to manufacture fiscal surplus that did not exist and to create a positive situation of the public accounts that was not true. As they stated, the purpose of the “pedaladas”, would have been, therefore, to hide the real fiscal situation of the country. In theory, two punishments were imposed: the loss of the mandate and the disqualification of any public function for eight years. With the impeachment, Dilma has definitively lost the mandate of president of the Republic. On the other hand, the Senate has decided not to suspend Dilma’s political rights. Several changes have occurred in the country’s economy after the impeachment. The adoption of a strong economic team resulted on the creation of several reform proposals. Although they are unpopular measures, they are necessary for solving the urgent problems of Brazilian’s economy. These include pension reform, labor reform and the creation of a ceiling on public spending (PEC 287). In addition, one of the consequences of this shift in power was disinflation and interest rate reduction what help to boost the economy and give hope for a way out of the recession.

An analysis of the Gross Domestic Product

By Raphael Matheus

Between 2003 and 2008, the Brazilian economy expanded at a 4.2% pace per year. After the start of the financial crisis in 2008 and the end of the commodities super-cycle, notwithstanding great efforts to stimulate the internal demand, the Brazilian economy began to slow down and dwindled in the following years, especially in the last three. In 2015, the Brazilian GDP contracted 3.8%, and 3.6% in 2016. Due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies combined with more restrictive liquidity conditions in major economies, the Brazilian economy needs to reposition itself. A broad adjustment process is required to improve fiscal accounts and the efficiency of public programs in order to set the path for a renewed growth cycle. The overall deterioration of the Brazilian economy in the last years has produced a significant reduction in the country’s capacity to grow without generating distortions. The slowdown of the Chinese economy, the consequent volatility in commodity prices, the mismanagement of local economic policies (in particular of the fiscal policy, which has contributed to the emergence of a fiscal crisis), the lack of reforms to spur domestic productivity, among other factors, have all contributed to a fall in Brazil’s potential GDP. In fact, these factors have negatively affected each one of the components of potential GDP, namely capital, labor and overall productivity (known as total factor productivity or TFP). The GDP growth estimate in 2017 is 0.45% and 2.5% in 2018, which reflects not only the deterioration recorded in the last few years but also less positive prospects for the future in the short run.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

By Raphael Matheus

Accelerated disinflation is under the way. Strongly aided by a sharp currency appreciation and a long recession, the headline inflation rate sharply declined to 5.35% YOY (Jan-2017) from 10.7% YOY (Jan-2016). The inflation target range is already set at 4.5% for 2017. Looking ahead, the official and private consensus anticipates a 4.1% YOY inflation rate for the current year. In this scenario of anchored inflationary expectations, the central bank has activated an aggressive monetary easing cycle. The administered policy (SELIC) interest rate has been reduced by 240 bps to 11.25% over the past four months. Market participants discount the continuation of aggressive interest rate cuts to close this year at 8.75%.
GPD Growth

Figure 1: GDP Growth. Source: Boletim Focus – Central Bank

Economy’s turnaround and the repatriation

By Gabriel Melo

Between 2005 and 2010, an impressive growth rate in the Brazilian GDP was observed, with the only exception in 2009 as a result of the Subprime crisis. Even more impressive was the simultaneous stabilization of the public debt during the same period. Right after 2013, these golden years have turned upside down with a zero growth of our GDP followed by two years of a deficit of almost 4%. A not so surprising turnaround since much more money was spent than reinvested by the government at that time. Not taking measures would result in more debt, less purchasing power, less tax collection and a total collapse of our economy. Even though in 2016 many measures started to be taken, hosting the Olympics made the government so optimistic that now we have even more debt than before the event (Rio de Janeiro owns private companies U$30 million for instance). One measure aiming to increase tax collection was taken by the ex-president Dilma Rousseff in January 2016, the repatriation of legal though undeclared capital retained outside the country by Brazilians. The cost of the regularization for the asset’s retainers would be 30%. This law provided amnesty on tax evasion to these specific assets. In 2016 was collected a total of U$15 billion. Projections say that a new repatriation project for 2017 would still rise about U$6 billion; therefore, the chamber of deputies approved a project for a new repatriation this year.

Tax Collection

Figure 2: Tax Collection and the GDP Source: Receita Federal

GPD Growth rate x Public Debt

Figure 3: GDP x Public Debt Source: Central Bank

Temer’s administration

By Vitor Procópio

Brazil, at the beginning of 2016, was in a recession without any expectation of getting out. The “New Economic Matrix” of Dilma’s administration has fallen apart. After the impeachment, the country has had a president with great politician experience, a debilitated economic situation and a grand rejection for PT and left wing political parties. During the XXI century, this propitious situation to do unpopular reforms has never been seen and the new president administration has been using this opportunity. In less than a year of Temer’s administration, the country has already improved a lot, from an expectation of negative GDP growth to a positive one in 2017. This market mood is based on the unpopular, but needed, reforms that promote an economic recovery in medium to long term. It is important to mention that Brazil is on its way to re-establish its economic situation without raising taxes! Making an analogy between Brazil and a person bleeding, the new governance adopted measures to stanch the bleeding, since just the expectation of a recovery is not enough to make the country really improve. These short-term measures consisted, mainly, of fiscal help to the states, income increase, supporting companies, reducing business bureaucracy and the governmental debt. However, the person would bleed again if nothing with a long-term character was made. With an alarming debt situation, high inflation, low economic activity, provision for more growth in federal expenditures without a corresponding increase in income, the government adopted further measures, such as the Constitutional Amendment number 95 from 2016, the Reform in Social Security and the Reform in Labor Laws.

The Proposed Constitutional Amendment 95

By Gustavo Morais

The Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PCA) 241, enacted in December 2016 as Constitutional Amendment 95, aims to establish a new fiscal regime and a limit for Brazilian’s total primary expenditure. This measure is valid for 20 years, affecting all the powers of the Union, and such amendment may be reassessed in the tenth fiscal year. The spending limit will be calculated based on the expenses of the previous year, being adjusted annually according to the inflation, not representing a real raise of the expenditure limit. The government intends to abandon the procyclical spending system, where a cost tends to grow together with the economy. By doing that, spending grows in economy’s positive times, however, turns unsustainable in periods of recession, requiring major adjustments. In the new model, public spending would be adjusted in a smooth and projected manner, thus entering a countercyclical regime, where expenditure has a real trajectory and revenues vary according to the economic cycle, allowing the possibility of saving and surplus. Another issue to be regarded is the possible lack of compliance in public finance due to increasing expenses with Social Security, especially retirement, added to the minimum expenditure in health and education that the constitution obliges, that could shorten the budget towards other governmental expenses. Thus, the imposed rules would only work with governments imbued with fiscal responsibility. This reinforces the importance of Brazilian’s Social Security reform approval, so this expense will not hinder Brazilian economic growth. If such limit of expenses is surpassed, some fences shall be applied to the Powers or departments in exercise. Those include limits to concessions, public staff’s salary increments, creation of new public offices, or any other new admissions that would require a budget enlargement.

The Reform in social security

By Vitor Procópio

Currently the Social Security and the Continuous Benefit Render (CBR) are already 54% of the expenditures without considering interest. With a raise of the benefited population and the reduction of the contributors, considering the Brazilian demography course, these expenditures will pressure investments in education, health and safety for a reduction. The existence of a social security deficit is a fact; the people that do not agree with it do accounting tricks with data of 2015, since that even in 2016 they were not able to demonstrate a surplus. The reform makes the public and private servers’ retirement converge, since the social security cannot be the problem resolution for every difference between public and private sectors attractiveness. It will promote more equality, since the majority of public servers compose the group of 1% richest people in Brazil. Another point of the reform is about the change of the minimum age up to 65 years old, since life expectation in Brazil is really close to life expectation of the wealthiest European countries and it does not considerably diverge between poor and rich people in Brazil. With the reform, at the age of 65 years old and 25 years contributing the person retires receiving 76% of the salaries average, increasing it by 1-point basis each additional year of contribution. The reform proposes a better regulation for the contribution of the rural workers, since information is nowadays available much easier at the rural environment than before, thus, it is easier to regulate. In relation to the Continuous Benefit Render (CBR), there are many flaws in its system that allows accumulation of benefits that are not coherent with the CBR goal, since it is a program for the poorest. Therefore, the social security, as a mechanism of transferring income, does not demonstrate equality, thereby the poor people are the less benefited, and it promotes unsustainable expenditures in the long-term.

Labors’ Law Reform

By Vitor Procópio

The unemployment rate in Brazil is at 13,2% for the first time, since 2002. Beyond that, Brazil has one of the worst business environments of the world. With rigid, outdated and incoherent labor laws. If accepted, the Reform of Labor Laws will improve the business environment in Brazil, more people will be employed, and therefore, it will cause a pressure for the improvement of the country, its economic situation and the financial situation of the families.

Unemployment rate

Figure 2: Unemployment rate Source: IBGE

BRL/USD

By Gabriel Melo

The presidential change as well as the new economic policy together with the asset’s repatriation favored the Real against the Dollar. Moreover the gradual raise of the American interest rate favored countries in development, in special Brazil by virtue of the positive economic perspective starting this year and intensifying in 2018. Simultaneously has the Central Bank of Brazil executed auctions of 6 thousand swaps as a way of holding back the dollar drop to keep the Brazilian market more competitive.

BRL.USD

Figure 5: BRL/USD exchange rate Source: Reuters

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

By Gabriel Melo

The consumer expectation’s survey made by FGV/IBRE is a monthly research that aims to quantify the consumer’s feeling regarding to the current scenario of the economy and personal finance. Together with the retail market, has the consumer confidence, and therefore the tax collection and the GDP, constantly dropped down from 2014 until December 2016. In March this year the index has reached the highest level (85,3) since December 2014. The cutback of Brazilian’s interest rate and the decrease on inflation’s level are the main reasons for the raise in confidence.

BRL.USD2

Figure 6: Consumer Confidence Index Source: FGV/IBRE

State’s crisis

Por Gabriel Melo

The recession has violently hit the financial balance of the majority of Brazilian’s states. With a minor tributary collection, not only the federation but also the states collect fewer taxes. Many states lack money for hospitals, public employees’ salary, public security and education. The 26 states together with a federal district registered a deficit of U$18 billion in the first semester of 2016. In August 2016 has the chamber of deputies approved a project of law that renegotiated the state’s debt with the National Union. The states received an extension of 20 years to repay the whole debt to the Union and did not have to pay any further debt until the end of last year. The decision avoids the payment of U$16 billion out of the states cashier to the Union, according to the Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles. Worrisome states like Rio de Janeiro have been taking many measures in order to reduce its expenses and increase its tax collections. In the particular case of Rio de Janeiro, the prediction to have a surplus is only in 2024.

State Crisis

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This brief article will discuss the effect of the Brexit on UK’s economy.

The plunge of the GBP

Let’s start by taking a look at foreign exchange data. On the 23rd of June 2016, we observed an impressive plunge of the Pound; for the GBP/USD it went from roughly 1.5 (before the vote) to 1.36 on the day after the referendum (xe.com, 2017). Same goes for the GBP/EUR ratio where in just a day it went from 1.31 (on the 23rd) to 1.23 on the 24th of June. It even reached a 5 year low at 1.10 in October 2016 (Bloomberg, 2017). It could be said that this plunge was easy to forecast but to what extent? Hard to say, what will need to be checked in the future is the purchasing power parity (PPP) of the UK compared to its ex fellow EU members. We could also look at the inflation rate of the country after it leaves the Union for good. With a slowing economy, we could hope for a slowly increasing inflation rate but a stagflation cannot scenario cannot be ignored. Even if the Pound has regained some value at today, it is complex to say how it will regain its all-time value. Will the EUR continue to grow after the French and German elections? Will the Fed continue to increase its rates? If yes then the GBP might face some issues but will it affect the
everyday life of the middle class British man? We will see. From a global perspective, it is clear that the developed economies have to find a way to stimulate their growth if they do not want to be outgrown by countries such as Brazil, Singapore and India. A solution for the country would be to become a tax heaven and attract numerous multinationals and the wealthy to boost its economy but how will that affect its population? (The Conversation, 2017).

Lower Credit Rating

The UK lost its top credit rating by the famous agencies of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch where it isnow rated AA, Aa1 and AA respectively and all have a negative outlook (Trading Economics, 2017). What does that mean? Interestingly, the Kingdom was not impacted greatly as it went from a prime grade to a high grade (to simplify it went from a 10/10 to a 9/10). We have anticipated a greater impact on the country’s borrowing cost looking at this disastrous impact it had on its currency and on its business partners. This small reduction in rating could be explained by, first of all, the strong economy of the country as well as its relative health compared to other. Indeed, the Queen’s land has a lower Government Debt to GDP ratio than the Euro Area (89.20% to 90.70%) and is lower than Belgium’s (106%), Italy’s (132.7%), France’s (96%)and Spain’s (99.2%). Also would that lower credit rating influence the country further? Not sure. The UK is an old land with a powerful financial sector and economy. We could expect developing countries to be significantly affected by such ratings but not behemoth like the UK which can ignore such ratings. The “negative outlook”, however, should be taken into account but is it reserved for the UK only or other countries from the Euro area are also victim of a negative outlook? Well taking into consideration the interconnected economies; it is rather complicated to say that a single euro country will surge while the other are plunging. With the actual peak of the world economy, it is rather safe to say that we should look at a stabling economy or a downward trend on Europe as a
whole, not a on single country. From a local perspective, the Bank of England has cut interest rates from 0.5 to 0.25 percent after the announcement of the Brexit. This action to stimulate the economy could help companies to borrow and give a boost to the GDP thanks to an increased number of mergers and acquisitions for instance. With a weaker currency, financial uncertainty and a hazardous environment it could be anticipated to see entrepreneurs and multinationals wanting migrating their office which leads us to the last point.

Businesses leaving the Queen’s Land

With the Brexit being announced, companies such as Morgan Stanley decided to relocate its headquarter to Germany. We see a migration of entrepreneurs and multinationals leaving the UK for more financial stability. Are they doing the right choice? Well it is hard to say; at this moment, we cannot assure what the government will do in terms of international policies. Will they raise or lower taxes? Will the interest rates go up? We are not sure. What should be looked at are the financial agreements between the EU and the UK. It is important that the UK does not isolate itself and still trades with the rest of the EU. Furthermore, the UK has to take care on how it will act upon its expatriates. It ought to retain the talents (whether British or international) who were educated and trained in the UK who risk to leave the country or not go there anymore due to over complicated policies. In case the Queen’s Land does not manage to retain the bright students it has formed, banks and multinationals are more likely to look elsewhere. We are here talking about large companies, if you look from a different perspective, let’s say of a Hedge Fund, the Brexit does not look like a major problem. Was the Brexit a Black Swan event? Taking into consideration that the Brexit was a long shot and that the existence of its idea was here for several years, we could expect companies and even countries to have created plans to compensate the loses which could be occurred due to the
Brexit. This may be the reason why the market did not crash completely. We might say that the current economic situation is more at risk due to political and economic instability of countries outside the EU. All in all, we assume that the UK will recover, with some time from its escape from the Union. It is now time to take a closer look at the French and German elections which will here affect the treaties and the economy as a whole.

grafico

Figure 1: GBP to EUR (Source: xe)

swiss

Facts and Sheet (Reference Year 2015)

Population: 8,1 Million
GDP per capita: 62’550 USD
GNI per capita: 63’982 USD
Real GDP growth: 0,8
Tax on personal income: 8,7% of GDP
Unemployment: 4,6% of labor force
Import of goods and services: 51,2% of GDP
Export of goods and services: 62,9% of GDP

Economic growth is rising but will remain moderate as the global outlook remains subdued. The labour market has been resilient, and the recent modest unemployment increase should be reversed by 2018. Interest rates are projected to remain low, helping to revive domestic demand. Deflation is ending as the currency has stabilized. The huge current account surplus
will persist. Monetary policy settings are appropriate, but risks from a long period of negative policy rates are rising. Although less buoyant than earlier, the housing market merits continued vigilance. Uncertainties remain regarding the implementation of the immigration quota decided in the 2014 referendum, even though some progress is being made. The ongoing reforms to corporate taxes are welcome. The fiscal position remains solid with the surplus expected to be maintained. The solid fiscal balance and the low government debt give significant room to boost high-quality spending, notably on public investment, which has been modest in recent years. Government bonds yields are negative up to 10-year maturities. Interest payments have been halved since 2005 to 0.6% of GDP. Projects that would raise productivity and green the economy should be prioritized. Expanding provisions for early childhood education and care would help ensure that growth is more inclusive.

Economic growth is recovering from the 2015 slowdown. The franc has enjoyed a period of relative stability since the sharp currency appreciation in January 2015. This has contributed to some rebound in exports, which have performed well, driven notably by chemical and pharmaceutical products. While domestic demand has been weak for the past two years, recent
indicators point to a recovery. Business confidence also points to higher growth. After a long period of deflation, consumer prices are now stable. The large current account surplus has shrunk somewhat but remains high, at above 9% of GDP.

demand, output and prices

Output growth is projected to recover and inflation will pick up Private consumption should gradually strengthen in 2017, as the unemployment rate returns to pre-2015 levels and household saving remains stable at ahigh level. Business investment will also contribute to boost growth, driven by better domestic and external prospects. The contribution from foreign trade will remain modest due to the strong franc, and the current account surplus will remain above 9% of GDP. Positive inflation is set to return as the economy gains momentum, but price rises will stay modest in the coming two years. An agreement with the European Union on the implementation of the referendum on migration quotas is still pending. This could potentially
disrupt trade flows with Switzerland’s main partner. Further weakness in Europe would also hurt the economy, both directly and through renewed pressure on the franc. A more pronounced rebound in global trade would be a boost.

Impacts of Brexit on Switzerland

Since the Brexit referendum on June 23rd, 2016, the island was keeping Europe busy for a long time, and its long-term consequences weren’t much foreseeable. Because of this event, Switzerland’s negotiating position with the EU was not expected to be improved by Brexit. Switzerland and Brussels were in negotiations about the future of the bilateral agreements. The relationship between Brussels and Switzerland was at stake, because of the mass immigration initiative from the Swiss People’s Party, tendency of a right-wing part. But the latest news are reporting, the negotiations between Brussels and Switzerland are reopened.

Brexit – or at least the stated intention of British voters to leave the EU – is a fact. However, since both the precise manner of departure and the drafting of the subsequent treaties between the United Kingdom and the EU are still entirely uncertain, it is still practically impossible to quantify the economic consequences with precision.

Nevertheless, Brexit is already influencing the real economy. First, the outcome of the vote had immediate implications for real economic indicators, such as the exchange rate. Furthermore, the real interest of Switzerland will be still hold below zero, meaning the interest rates will stay negative. Switzerland is expecting for a capital inflow and are trying to intervene as much as possible in the currency market to keep the Swiss currency low. In addition, Brexit had a dampening effect on the expectations of British consumers and producers. At the same time, the depreciation of the pound sterling should increase demand for British products, and cushion any adverse economic consequences for the United Kingdom. However, the more subdued expectations and the related increased uncertainty are expected to lead overall to restraint on the part of consumers and investors and offset any exchange rate gains.

Twin-track implications

The implications of Brexit for Switzerland are expected to be felt in two areas. First, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU is expected to complicate trade with the island nation, at least until trade relations between Switzerland and the United Kingdom have been regulated in new treaties. This would affect predominantly businesses with direct trade relations. On the other hand, Brexit is expected to have indirect knock-on effects on Switzerland. It may be assumed that it will worsen Switzerland’s negotiating position with the EU with regard to the implementation of the initiative against mass immigration.

It is difficult to imagine that, in view of the expected tough negotiations with the outgoing United Kingdom, the EU would grant concessions to a third country in relation to one of its core basic values, free movement of persons. The requirements of the initiative against mass immigration are not compatible with the agreement on the free movement of persons between
Switzerland and the EU, and the implementation of the initiative would constitute a violation of the treaty by Switzerland. Brexit has probably made it more likely that the EU would respond to a violation of the agreement on the free movement of persons by terminating the agreement. Since the agreement on the free movement of persons is associated by a guillotine clause with the further Bilateral II Agreements, this means that if one treaty is terminated then all Bilateral II treaties will lapse.

Switzerland, an attractive pole for Startups

On March 29th 2017, the Federal Council in Bern focused on the young startups with an interesting growth in Switzerland. Even if those young startups are doing rather well, the federal council noticed there were some gaps in the process of starting a company.

Indeed looking at statistics addressing the share of venture capital in the GDP, Switzerland comes up second behind Finland (2015) on an European scale. It amounted to 0.044% but compared to the international scale, Switzerland is far behind countries, like Israel (0,383%) or the United-States (0,284%).

To respond to this need, and fulfill the gap, an author of the first Federal Council report on research and innovation thinks that a « fund for the future » is a rather good option. The SCH (Société suisse de Crédit Hôtelier) or the technological funds facilitate on a federal scale the aid in securing investments (equity or loan).

But what the author meant is to develop a public VC program even if offers are made by private institutions or public institutions. It would increase the number of Startups, knowing that the country is willing to support the development of these companies. Another interesting fact is, if we used public institutions to promote young startups, it could be rather interesting for habitants to invest, and use their savings to promote those young companies and earn money out of this investment.

Unfortunately, at this time, the Federal Council does not think necessary to develop a program of public financing to support young Startups. Private and public institutions offer a comfortable resource for investment.

The economic frame offered by Switzerland is globally one of the best in the world. One of the objectives consists in adapting constantly to the dynamism of the economy and the technological evolution.

For future notice, the federal Council will examine other measures of improvement so that Switzerland can protect her attraction for companies with fast growth.

Bibliography:

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-forecast-summary-switzerland-oecd-economic-outlook-november-2016.pdf

https://www.kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/news/kof-bulletin/kof-bulletin/2016/09/no-consequences-of-brexit-for-switzerland-yet.html

Source: SECO www.admin.ch

dinheiro_calculadora

Finanças publicas e o financiamento dos estados soberanos são temas de extrema importância globalmente, esse texto tem o objetivo de simplificar eventos recentes da Economia Brasileira.

Na decada de 1980 se inicia por assim dizer a historia recente das contas publicas brasileiras, por ocasião da negociacao de um emprestimo com o FMI. Diversas exigencias tiveram que ser seguidas pelo estado Brasileiro como criação de indices e um acompanhamento mais eficaz para o empréstimo na época. A estabilidade economica de fato ocorreu com Plano Real, introduzido em julho de 1994, o processo inflacionario no Brasil antes de 1994 foi cronico e aceleracionista, algo inacreditavel para qualquer estrangeiro com indices de inflação que chegavam a 1000% ao ano. Com o Plano Real foi introduzida a moeda que o país usa atualmente o “Real”, e medidas como: cortes de gastos, recuperação de receitas, medidas de austeridades, reforma no papel dos bancos publicos e diversas privatizações. Tais medidas propiciaram ao país viver um grande periodo de estabilidade, atualmente as contas publicas voltam a tona, principalmente pelo processo de impedimento que a atual presidente do Executivo do país sofre, tentaremos explicar um pouco e do que se trata o processo e os possiveis acontecimentos.

macro

A Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), criada em 2000 na gestão do presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso, é uma Lei que tenta impor o controle dos gastos dos diversos atores do estado Brasileiro, ela condiciona os gastos publicos à capacidade de arrecadação de tributos dos entes federativos. Ela se fez necessaria pelo costume, na política brasileira, de gestores promoverem obras de grande porte no final de seus mandatos, deixando a conta para seus sucessores. A Lei foi responsavel pela vinda de confiança de investidores estrangeiros e por fazer parte de pacote de reformas que geraram um ciclo que trouxe diversos avanços sociais no Brasil. Com o passar de alguns anos fomos acompanhando um deteriomento nas contas publicas brasileiras podemos visualizar na figura 1 .

macro 1

macro 4

Diversos foram os fatos que criaram esse agravamento das contas nacionais, grandes programas de desenvolvimento, grandes obras e casos de corrupção que financiavam campanhas e garatiam monopolio dos serviços publicos conforme a investigação “Lava Jato” uma força tarefa entre o Poder Judiciario e a policia Federal mostram. Um dado importante é o mostrado na figura 2 que mostra o gasto com salarios do governo e como houve uma explosão em contratações.Com receitas que não acompanhavam essa evolução os gastos com juros em titulos foram aumentando com o tempo, como podemos ver na figura 3. Com esse quadro as agencias de risco como Fitch, Moody´s e Standard & Poor´s emitiram avisos sobre as contas brasileiras e em seguida abaixaram as classificações de risco do Brasil e então consequentemente uma grave crise economica veio a pairar sobre o país.

macro 3

Nominal Interest Rate (current value/millions units) Internamente o Governo para tentar não ser cair na Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, iniciou uma “Contabilidade Criativa” sobre os dados brasileiros, tal fato caracteriza quando gastos e operações de endividamento foram convertidos em receita para engordar as contas. A ação principal nesse campo, foi a conversão do aporte de capital à Petrobrás(Estatal Brasileira de Petroleo) – R$ 74,8 bilhões – numa receita de R$ 31,9 bilhões para o Tesouro. O governo agiu dessa maneira para esconder a expansão da despesa pública, do déficit e da dívida governamental. O evento pode ser observado na figura 4 como dados extremamente correlacionados Divida Bruta e Divida Liquida começam a possuir um grande descompaso entre si.

 

O governo para inflar o resultado primário de 2013, adiando pagamentos relativos a um mês ou a um exercício específico, deu inicio as “pedaladas fiscais” outra maneira de manipular os dados de orçamento do governo. Em junho de 2014, as “pedaladas” atingiram o ápice quando bancos publicos pagaram gastos com programas sociais criados pelo governo federal. O processo de Impeachment vivido pela presidente decorre de uma denuncia dessa epoca, o processo também teve influencia direta da aprovação da presidente, que ao passar de 2013 foi sofrendo grandes quedas e de certa maneira fez com que varios aliados importantes fosse saindo da coalizão criada pelo Partido dos Trabalhadores e embarcando na oposição e apoiando o processo de impedimento. Uma atmosfera propicia foi criada para que a denuncia fosse aceita pelo parlamento no inicio desse ano. Atualmente o país vive uma crise economica grave em decorrencia da crise politica, crise essa que elevou a taxa de desemprego do país á 10%, aumentou as taxas de inflação a patamares não vistos a quase duas decadas e fez com que a moeda sofrece uma alta desvalorização, especialista apostam que com a saida da presidente investidores estrageiros voltem ao país, mas ainda ninguém consegue prever como o deficit de 300 bilhões nas contas publicas criado durante a gestão do Partido dos Trabalhadores irá ser pago pelas gestões que venham a suceder a presidente.

Análise

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7.6

Woman shopping at the supermarket

A forte recessão econômica e a incerteza política causam uma série de consequências aos brasileiros. Dentre elas observa-se o desemprego que ficou em 10,9%, no primeiro trimestre de 2016, e atingiu 11,1 milhões de pessoas, segundo o IBGE. O endividamento das famílias, em que 44,54% delas estão comprometidas com dívidas em fevereiro, segundo Banco Central. E a alta taxa de juros, que em abril foi mantida pelo Copom no maior nível em 9 anos, em 14,25% ao ano. Por meio desses dados pode-se ver uma instabilidade preocupante, que vêm afetando diretamente a confiança do consumidor e consequentemente o desempenho do varejo.

O maior reflexo dessa macroeconomia desfavorável foi o Índice de Confiança do Consumidor (ICC) que atingiu o menor nível da sua série histórica que iniciou em 2005. O ICC é uma pesquisa mensal que procura captar o sentimento do consumidor em relação ao estado geral da economia e de suas finanças pessoais. A inadimplência expressiva, o mercado de trabalho enfraquecido e o alto patamar de endividamento das famílias são os principais motivos para tamanha desconfiança.

Além disso, o ICC é dividido em 2 subindicadores de confiança, o Índice da Situação Atual (ISA-ICC) e o Índice de Expectativa (IE-ICC) em relação aos meses seguintes. Nos dois houve piora nas avaliações dos consumidores, onde o ISA também atingiu um novo mínimo histórico.

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O cenário ruim nas vendas do varejo conduz um recuo não apenas na confiança do consumidor, mas também do empresariado. O Índice de Confiança do Comércio (ICOM), pesquisa de monitoramento e antecipação de tendências econômicas do setor, atingiu sua segunda queda consecutiva e terceiro menor nível da série iniciada em 2010. Devido a demanda desfavorável, a escassez de crédito e a confiança do consumidor abalada.

3

Assim como o ICC, o ICOM também é dividido em 2 subindicadores. O Índice da Situação Atual (ISA-ICOM) atingiu o valor mínimo da série. Já o Índice de Expectativas (IE-ICOM) teve uma alta, influenciada pelo quesito que mede o grau de otimismo com a evolução da situação dos negócios no horizonte de seis meses.

 

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Os dois Índices apresentaram resultados alarmantes em relação a Situação Atual, ambos atingiram mínimas históricas. O Varejo que é diretamente afetado entra em uma situação perigosa, já que com a perda da confiança o consumo também tende a cair. O que é complicado para o Brasil, visto que o consumo das famílias compõe 63% do PIB e quando despencou 4% em 2015, o PIB o acompanhou caindo 3,8%.

Em relação a perspectiva futura, há divergências entre os Índices de Confiança do Consumidor e do Comércio. Os consumidores estão mais pessimistas, pois tem sofrido com um cenário econômico e político que parece difícil de ser resolvido rapidamente. Já os empresários creem que com a saída da presidente, a incerteza política será removida e que o novo governo fará medidas para aquecer a economia e estabilizar a política macroeconômica brasileira.

Entretanto, o futuro é incerto, posto que atual crise se aprofunda em uma combinação de escândalos de corrupção, desemprego, inflação em alta e incerteza generalizada entre empresários e consumidores. Esses fatos mostram como a corrosão da credibilidade do governo levou a uma retração de grande proporção em quase todos os setores, onde a economia segue em queda a caminho do pior desempenho da última década.

Análise

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Summary
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5

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